The Diamondbacks are set to face off against the Cubs at Wrigley Field in what promises to be a thrilling afternoon game slotted for a 2:20 PM ET start. The Diamondbacks, slight money line favorites at -106, will be looking to continue their strong performance on the road.
Pitching Matchup: Steele vs. Nelson
On the mound for the Cubs, Justin Steele brings a competitive edge. Steele has made 14 starts this season, boasting a 2-3 record with a 2.71 ERA. His ability to deliver quality starts has been evident, accomplishing this feat eight times so far. In his most recent outing, Steele dazzled with seven scoreless innings. However, a slight discrepancy exists between his home and road performances; his home ERA stands at 3.16 compared to a 2.96 ERA on the road.
Countering him for the Diamondbacks will be Ryne Nelson. Nelson holds a 6-6 record with a 4.99 ERA. Despite a higher WHIP of 1.42 and opponents hitting .296 against him, Nelson has shown resilience, making six consecutive starts without giving up more than three earned runs. The projected strikeout counts for the game lean towards Steele, expected to record six, while Nelson is forecasted to get four.
Diamondbacks' Recent Form
The Diamondbacks enter the game with a 49-48 record, sitting second in the NL West, just seven games behind the Dodgers. Their knack for scoring is notable, averaging five runs per game, the second-best mark in MLB. However, the team recently experienced a heartbreaker, losing 8-7 to the Blue Jays after leading by seven runs. Nonetheless, they have shown tenacity on the road, winning their last two away games and posting a 4-1 record in their last five away contests. Their run line record also stands at 49-48.
Christian Walker and Ketel Marte have been powerhouses for Arizona, with 22 and 19 home runs respectively. The Diamondbacks' games tend to be high-scoring, averaging 9.8 runs this season, and their over/under record is 52-42. Notably, 84.5% of Diamondbacks' games surpass the 7.5 run line, a stat that bodes well for over/under bettors.
Cubs' Performance and Key Players
The Cubs come into this matchup with a 47-51 record, struggling to find consistency as they sit fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. Despite this, the Cubs have been in good form recently, winning seven of their last ten games and four of their last five at home. Their divisional record of 12-21 highlights their challenges within the NL Central.
Offensively, the Cubs average 4.2 runs per game, with a team batting average of .235. Nico Hoerner has been impressive, hitting .378 over his last nine games, while Christopher Morel has shown power with three homers in his last eight games. In their recent 8-3 victory over the Cardinals, Jameson Taillon pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowing three earned runs.
Over/Under Analysis
Both teams are riding three-game over streaks, and the game has an over/under line set at 7.5 runs. For the Diamondbacks, they hold a 6-4 record when the over/under is set at this mark. Meanwhile, 67.3% of Cubs games have exceeded the 7.5 run line, with a 12-10 record in such scenarios.
All indicators suggest a tightly contested game as the Diamondbacks and Cubs clash at Wrigley Field. Justin Steele's strong pitching coupled with Ryne Nelson's resilience might shape the outcome, but the potent offenses and recent trends point towards an exciting and possibly high-scoring affair. The prediction stands at a narrow victory for the Diamondbacks, 5-4.